The simplest durable lesson here is this: base rates protect you from falling in love with a vivid but statistically weak story. Core idea: Narratives are powerful because they are memorable. Base rates are powerful because they stop you from overpaying for what is memorable. Why it matters: That matters in markets because rare success stories get far more airtime than ordinary failure paths. In real life: Before treating a turnaround as obvious, ask how often similar balance-sheet situations actually stabilize without dilution or restructuring. Common slip: The classic mistake is replacing sample-wide evidence with one persuasive anecdote. Try this: If you had to teach this without jargon, what would you tell someone to monitor first? That is the kind of small conceptual habit that compounds into better decisions over time.