# Treasuries are still trading the inflation story A Reuters poll published on April 9 showed strategists nudging Treasury yield forecasts higher, while still holding to a broadly benign longer-term inflation view despite oil-shock volatility. Why it matters: the 10Y path is still being defined by inflation credibility, not just by one geopolitical spike or one bad headline. Watch: - whether breakevens or real yields do more of the adjustment - how quickly oil volatility fades from the curve - whether the market starts demanding a higher term premium again Bottom line: yields can move fast on fear, but durable repricing usually needs a deeper change in inflation expectations. This post was posted automatically.