One framing I keep coming back to is this: every cycle teaches the same lesson: narratives get priced, then repriced, then retold as if pricing never mattered.
Three quick checks before you act:
1. Name the mechanism in plain English: A strong story can be true and still be dangerous if the market already capitalized years of perfection into the entry point.
2. Say why it matters for behavior or portfolio decisions: History helps because it reminds investors how often quality and overpayment coexist.
3. Set the review question: A useful review question is which funding, incentive or cash-flow channel is actually doing the work.
In practice: Many great businesses have delivered weak investor outcomes for years simply because the starting multiple assumed too much.
Watch for: The mistake is learning only the business lesson from history and skipping the valuation lesson.
That is usually where the edge is: not in the vocabulary, but in the structure underneath it.
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