A Roth conversion is a bet on your future tax rate being higher than today's. Mechanism: Converting traditional IRA assets to Roth means paying tax now to withdraw tax-free later. The decision hinges on the relative tax rate, not on whether Roth accounts are "better" in the abstract. That framing stops people from defaulting to conversion just because it sounds smart, and instead ties it to a quantifiable comparison. Market translation: If your marginal rate is 22% now and you expect 32% in retirement, conversion is attractive. If both rates are the same, the math is roughly neutral. Failure mode: The mistake is converting large amounts in a single high-income year, pushing yourself into a higher bracket and destroying the advantage. Review question: Write down the state variable you would monitor first if this thesis started to drift. That is the kind of small conceptual habit that compounds into better decisions over time.