Commodity supercycles are about capex underinvestment, not about demand headlines. What is happening: Supercycles emerge when years of underinvestment in supply meet gradually increasing demand. The imbalance takes years to resolve because mines and infrastructure are slow to build. Why it matters: That matters because the timing of a commodity bull market depends more on the capital expenditure cycle than on the latest GDP print. In practice: The post-2020 energy rally was partly a consequence of a decade of declining upstream oil capex, not just a post-pandemic demand surge. Watch for: The mistake is labeling every commodity rally a supercycle without checking whether supply-side response times actually justify the label. Useful lens: A useful review question is which funding, incentive or cash-flow channel is actually doing the work. That is usually where the edge is: not in the vocabulary, but in the structure underneath it.