Gold is better understood as a hedge on policy credibility than as an inflation trade. What is happening: Gold tends to do well when trust in monetary and fiscal institutions is weakening, not strictly when CPI is rising. Why it matters: That distinction explains why gold can underperform during garden-variety inflation and outperform during currency debasement fears. In practice: In periods where real rates are deeply negative and central bank credibility is questioned, gold often rallies even if inflation is already falling. Watch for: The mistake is treating gold as a straightforward CPI hedge and then wondering why the relationship breaks. Useful lens: Before reacting, ask what mechanism would still matter here if the headline disappeared tomorrow. That is usually where the edge is: not in the vocabulary, but in the structure underneath it.