A useful way to think about this: historical analogies are useful when they sharpen questions, not when they pretend to predict the script. What is happening: The value of history is rarely in exact repetition. It is in seeing how incentives, leverage and policy constraints rhyme across cycles. That is how the past becomes a decision tool instead of a decoration. In practice: An analogy helps most when it tells you what variable to monitor now, not when it tells you to copy a past trade blindly. Watch for: The mistake is treating similarity of headlines as similarity of market structure. Useful lens: On the next portfolio review, separate what feels urgent from what is structurally important. A lot of confusion disappears once you separate the headline from the mechanism.