Commodity supercycles are about capex underinvestment, not about demand headlines. Three quick checks before you act: 1. Name the mechanism in plain English: Supercycles emerge when years of underinvestment in supply meet gradually increasing demand. The imbalance takes years to resolve because mines and infrastructure are slow to build. 2. Say why it matters for behavior or portfolio decisions: That matters because the timing of a commodity bull market depends more on the capital expenditure cycle than on the latest GDP print. 3. Set the review question: On the next portfolio review, separate what feels urgent from what is structurally important. In practice: The post-2020 energy rally was partly a consequence of a decade of declining upstream oil capex, not just a post-pandemic demand surge. Watch for: The mistake is labeling every commodity rally a supercycle without checking whether supply-side response times actually justify the label. The point is not to memorize the label. The point is to know what variable is actually doing the work.